Early ‘Love Guru’ and ‘Get Smart’ box office tracking

Would it be fair to say the two comedies releasing next week are rather low on buzz? I’d say so. ‘Get Smart’ has the ‘Speed Racer’ vibe going, it’s based on some TV show in the sixties nobody remembers. And ‘The Love Guru’ has the Mike Myers vibe going, which can be bad (’The Cat in the Hat’) or pretty good (’Austin Powers’).

At this point, Warner’s ‘Get Smart’ is topping the Mike Myers vehicle. Especially the older crowd (25+) prefers Steve Carell over Mike Myers at this point. With about the same budgets, around $80 million, this could be a tight race. Let’s have an early look at the tracking numbers to see their box office potential.

‘Get Smart’ compared to ‘The Love Guru’

Un-Aided Awareness: 3% - 4%
Total Awareness: 78% - 80%
Definite Interest: 36% - 27%
Definite Interest: 31% - 18% males 25 plus
Definite Interest: 36% - 15% females 25 plus

First Choice: 7% - 3%

A definite advantage for ‘Get Smart’ a big week before its release. Although we can’t give a fair box office prediction at this point, the two movies are looking to gross between $25-40 million next weekend, with a $5-10 million difference. But both movies still have a big chunk of marketing ahead of them, so these numbers are bound to change.