Another batch of +$100 million budget movies is coming up. This week we’ll see ‘Wall-e,’ the highly anticipated new $120 million Pixar animation. ‘Wanted,’ the teen-oriented, action driven, testosterone powered, Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy featuring $65 million spy movie. And the week after, anti-hero, rehab going and $150 million ‘Hancock’ will storm theaters early July 1^st.

Tracking for ‘Wall-e’ is good. Compared to ‘Ratatouille’ last year:

Awareness: 84% (compared to 82% for ‘Ratatouille’)
Definite Interest: 41% (to 38% for ‘Ratatouille’)
First choice: 10% (to 8% for ‘Ratatouille’)

Very early box office estimates would put ‘Wall-e’ around a $70 million opening weekend.

Continue reading Tracking numbers: ‘Wall-e,’ ‘Wanted’ and ‘Hancock’ strong

Sadly there aren’t any new tracking numbers floating around. But we do have a better idea of what to expect, just a little over a day before release. Last week’s tracking numbers indicated a soft launch for both ‘The Love Guru’ and ‘Get Smart,’ with the last one tracking a little higher. And while the expectations for Steve Carell’s movie are still in line with last week, Mike Myers doesn’t seem to be doing so well.

Both are rumored to have about the same budget, $80 million, but ‘The Love Guru’ might struggle to make some profit in the US alone. Most analysts are expecting a $20-$25 million opening, but some say it might not even top $20 million. An opening in the high teens will definitely be considered a failure by Paramount and won’t do Myers’ future projects any good.

‘Get Smart’ is doing better and would end the coming weekend with a little under $40 million. We will take a look at the reviews tomorrow, when most of the quotes are in, but it looks like the critics are projecting the same view. The first ‘The Love Guru’ reviews are burning and ‘Get Smart’ is doing just a little bit better. No, this won’t be a big weekend.

Would it be fair to say the two comedies releasing next week are rather low on buzz? I’d say so. ‘Get Smart’ has the ‘Speed Racer’ vibe going, it’s based on some TV show in the sixties nobody remembers. And ‘The Love Guru’ has the Mike Myers vibe going, which can be bad (’The Cat in the Hat’) or pretty good (’Austin Powers’).

At this point, Warner’s ‘Get Smart’ is topping the Mike Myers vehicle. Especially the older crowd (25+) prefers Steve Carell over Mike Myers at this point. With about the same budgets, around $80 million, this could be a tight race. Let’s have an early look at the tracking numbers to see their box office potential.

Continue reading Early ‘Love Guru’ and ‘Get Smart’ box office tracking